Circular Economy in the Russian Energy Sector

In the context of the introduction of cross-border carbon regulation (CBAM) in Europe and the need to improve the energy efficiency of the Russian economy, the transition to a circular model in the energy sector is becoming not only an environmental but also an economic task. However, the absence of indicators of the closure of flows of carbon, heat and waste in open statistics does not allow us to assess Russia’s real readiness for such a transition. The purpose of the study is to identify the degree of readiness of the Russian energy sector for the circular model based on statistical data for 2004–2024, identify key barriers (including statistical ones) and propose measurable indicators for managing the transition. The following techniques were used in the work: descriptive statistical analysis of time series of primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions; Pearson correlation analysis for five-year intervals; trend extrapolation method for forecasting up to 2030; comparative analysis of three technological alternatives (CCUS/EOR, CCU, and renewable energy sources) according to six criteria; a system-functional analysis of statistical gaps; reviewing of 23 scientific sources and official industry reports. Over the past twenty years, the total consumption of primary energy in Russia has increased by 16 % (from ~541 to ~630 million tons of oil equivalent), while the consumption structure has remained virtually unchanged: gas – 44–46 %, oil – 22–24 %, coal – 16–18 %, nuclear and hydropower – 13–15 %, renewable energy – less than 1 % (1.25 % in electricity consumption, according to 2025 data). The correlation between energy consumption growth and CO2 emissions decreased from +0.85 (2004–2008) to +0.15 (2019–2023), indicating a break in the direct association, but absolute emissions remained stuck in the range of 1.55–1.65 million tons of CO2 per year. The production of “new” renewable energy generation in the first nine months of 2025 decreased by 2.7 % compared to the same period in 2024, and its share does not exceed 1.25 %. In Russian statistical databases (including statbase.ru) there are no key circular indicators, viz. the volume of CO2 captured, the volume of CO2 injected into reservoirs, the volume of CO2 used as raw materials, detailed monthly dynamics of renewable energy sources, replaced volume of fossil fuels, investments in circular projects. It is concluded that the Russian energy industry has successfully severed the association between consumption growth and emissions growth, but has not switched to a circular model; the achieved stabilization of emissions has been provided by linear methods (increasing energy efficiency, replacing coal with gas) rather than by closure of carbon flows. Without the introduction of six new statistical indicators and scaling of CCUS projects and renewable energy sources, Russia will remain in the “1.6 million tons trap”, i. e., in a state in which emissions do not increase, but do not decrease absolutely.

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