Simulation Modeling and Probabilistic Safety Analysis in Nuclear Power Plant Risk Management

Abstract

The article is devoted to current issues of energy security and risk management in the nuclear energy industry of the Republic of Belarus. The authors examine the strategic importance of developing nuclear energy to ensure the country’s energy independence, and also analyze the consequences of major accidents at nuclear power plants (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima), emphasizing the need to improve methods for assessing and minimizing risks. Particular attention is paid to the methodology of probabilistic safety analysis (PSA), which is used to analyze the reliability of systems, including modeling emergency scenarios using fault trees. The practical application of the method is demonstrated using the example of the AAR water filtration system of a nuclear power plant: fault trees are constructed, the probability of system failure is calculated, and key vulnerabilities (pump power supply failures) are identified. A comparative analysis of risk assessment methods (adjustment of the discount rate, expert assessments, the Monte Carlo method, etc.) was conducted, and their advantages and limitations were highlighted. It is emphasized that simulation modeling and PSA provide the most comprehensive approach to risk management, combining the analysis of technological processes and the human factor. Based on the results of the study, recommendations are proposed to improve the reliability of nuclear power plant operation, including regular monitoring of equipment and improvement of safety systems.