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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">energy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Энергетика. Известия высших учебных заведений и энергетических объединений СНГ</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>ENERGETIKA. Proceedings of CIS higher education institutions and power engineering associations</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1029-7448</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2414-0341</issn><publisher><publisher-name>BNTU</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21122/1029-7448-2023-66-4-305-321</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">energy-2287</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭЛЕКТРОЭНЕРГЕТИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ELECTRICAL POWER ENGINEERING</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Повышение точности прогнозирования генерации фотоэлектрических станций на основе алгоритмов k-средних и k-ближайших соседей</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Improving of the Generation Accuracy Forecasting of Photovoltaic Plants Based on k-Means and k-Nearest Neighbors Algorithms</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Матренин</surname><given-names>П. B.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Matrenin</surname><given-names>P. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Новосибирск; Екатеринбург</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Novosibirsk; Ekaterinburg</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Хальясмаа</surname><given-names>А. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Khalyasmaa</surname><given-names>A. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Новосибирск; Екатеринбург</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Novosibirsk; Ekaterinburg</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Гамалей</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Gamaley</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Новосибирск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Novosibirsk</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ерошенко</surname><given-names>С. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Eroshenko</surname><given-names>S. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Новосибирск; Екатеринбург</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Novosibirsk; Ekaterinburg</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Попкова</surname><given-names>Н. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Papkova</surname><given-names>N. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Минск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Minsk</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Секацкий</surname><given-names>Д. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sekatski</surname><given-names>D. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Адрес для переписки:Секацкий Дмитрий Александрович -Белорусский национальный технический университет, просп. Независимости, 65/2,220013, г. Минск, Республика Беларусь.Тел.: +375 17 292-65-82dsekatski@gmail.com</p><p> </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Address for correspondence:Sekatski Dzmitry A. _Belаrusian National Technical University,65/2, Nezavisimosty Ave.,220013, Minsk, Republic of Belarus.Tel.: +375 17 292-65-82dsekatski@gmail.com</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">dsekatski@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Потачиц</surname><given-names>Я. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Potachits</surname><given-names>Y. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Минск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Minsk</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Новосибирский государственный технический университет; &#13;
Уральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента России Б. Н. Ельцина</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Novosibirsk State Technical University;&#13;
Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Новосибирский государственный технический университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Novosibirsk State Technical University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Белорусский национальный технический университет</institution><country>Беларусь</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Belarusian National Technical University</institution><country>Belarus</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>08</day><month>08</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>66</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>305</fpage><lpage>321</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Матренин П.B., Хальясмаа А.И., Гамалей В.В., Ерошенко С.А., Попкова Н.А., Секацкий Д.А., Потачиц Я.В., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Матренин П.B., Хальясмаа А.И., Гамалей В.В., Ерошенко С.А., Попкова Н.А., Секацкий Д.А., Потачиц Я.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Matrenin P.V., Khalyasmaa A.I., Gamaley V.V., Eroshenko S.A., Papkova N.A., Sekatski D.A., Potachits Y.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://energy.bntu.by/jour/article/view/2287">https://energy.bntu.by/jour/article/view/2287</self-uri><abstract><p>Возобновляемые источники энергии рассматриваются как средство снижения углеродного следа топливно-энергетического комплекса, при этом стохастический характер генерации осложняет их интеграцию с электроэнергетическими системами. Эта существенная трудность обусловливает необходимость создавать и совершенствовать методы прогнозирования генерации электрических станций, использующих энергию солнца, ветра и водных потоков. Наиболее важным направлением, обеспечивающим повышение точности прогнозных моделей, является глубокий анализ метеорологических условий как главного фактора, влияющего на выработку электроэнергии. В данной работе предложен и исследован метод адаптации прогнозных моделей под метеорологические условия работы фотоэлектрических станций на базе алгоритмов машинного обучения. При этом вначале выполняется обучение без учителя методом k-средних для формирования кластеров. Для этой задачи также предложено и исследовано использование алгоритма понижения размерности пространства признаков для визуализации оценки точности кластеризации. Затем для каждого кластера построена своя модель машинного обучения для формирования прогнозов и алгоритм k-ближайших соседей для отнесения текущих условий на этапе эксплуатации модели к одному из сформированных кластеров. Исследование было проведено на почасовых метеорологических данных за период с 1985 по 2021 г. Одной из особенностей этого подхода является кластеризация метеоусловий на часовых, а не суточных интервалах. В результате средний модуль относительной ошибки прогнозирования существенно снижается в зависимости от используемой модели прогнозирования. Для наилучшего варианта ошибка прогнозирования генерации фотоэлектрической станции на час вперед составила 9 %.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Renewable energy sources (RES) are seen as a means of the fuel and energy complex carbon footprint reduction but the stochastic nature of generation complicates RES integration with electric power systems. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and improve methods for forecasting of the power plants generation using the energy of the sun, wind and water flows. One of the ways to improve the accuracy of forecast models is a deep analysis of meteorological conditions as the main factor affecting the power generation. In this paper, a method for adapting of forecast models to the meteorological conditions of photovoltaic stations operation based on machine learning algorithms was proposed and studied. In this case, unsupervised learning is first performed using the k-means method to form clusters. For this, it is also proposed to use studied the feature space dimensionality reduction algorithm to visualize and estimate the clustering accuracy. Then, for each cluster, its own machine learning model was trained for generation forecasting and the k-nearest neighbours algorithm was built to attribute the current conditions at the model operation stage to one of the formed clusters. The study was conducted on hourly meteorological data for the period from 1985 to 2021. A feature of the approach is the clustering of weather conditions on hourly rather than daily intervals. As a result, the mean absolute percentage error of forecasting is reduced significantly, depending on the prediction model used. For the best case, the error in forecasting of a photovoltaic plant generation an hour ahead was 9 %.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>краткосрочное прогнозирование</kwd><kwd>генерация электроэнергии</kwd><kwd>фотоэлектрическая станция</kwd><kwd>возобновляемые источники энергии</kwd><kwd>метеорологические факторы</kwd><kwd>инсоляция</kwd><kwd>солнечная радиация</kwd><kwd>нейронные сети</kwd><kwd>кластеризация данных</kwd><kwd>прогнозная модель</kwd><kwd>предобработка данных</kwd><kwd>машинное обучение</kwd><kwd>метод главных компонент</kwd><kwd>адаптивный бустинг</kwd><kwd>линейная регрессия</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>short-term forecasting</kwd><kwd>electricity generation</kwd><kwd>photovoltaic plant</kwd><kwd>renewable energy sources</kwd><kwd>meteorological factors</kwd><kwd>insolation</kwd><kwd>solar radiation</kwd><kwd>neural networks</kwd><kwd>data clustering</kwd><kwd>predictive model</kwd><kwd>data preprocessing</kwd><kwd>machine learning</kwd><kwd>principal component analysis</kwd><kwd>adaptive boosting</kwd><kwd>linear regression</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Исследование выполнено за счет гранта Российского научного фонда (проект № 22-79-00181).</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">El hendouzi, A. 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